The end of iPhone X?

Hard to say exactly what will happen given Apple’s shroud of secrecy….

However, analysts are predicting that the iPhone X will be killed off this year.

http://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/20/apple-iphone-x-discontinued-this-year-analyst-says.html

If true, I am very disappointed.

I think the iPhone X was the best phone that Apple has released to date. I was also looking forward to the larger version that was pretty much pegged to be released this fall.

So, I suppose it’s going to be a bit of a waiting game to see if the “X” is going to be showing up again in a few months or not.

Published by

Ronald Epstein

administrator

34 Comments

  1. I am really confused where Apple is planning to go next.

    As an iPhone X owner, do I want to step down to an outdated design with their next release?

    I mean, if Apple isn't going to design a phone without a home button and face recognition which gives the "X" its unique value, what are they planning to do?

    I mean, the iPhone 8 was "meh" compared to what came before it. We are still a few years away from screen folding phones.

    It's kind of odd that there are no leaks as to what Apple is actually up to now that they have canceled the "X" design.

  2. Well, that is an interesting article, if true.
    MacRumors has it differently, I bolded the fourth bullet below:

    CURRENT RUMORS

    • Three iPhones expected, two OLED and one LCD
    • OLED iPhones will be 5.8 and 6.5 inches
    • LCD iPhone will feature 6.1-inch display and lower price tag
    • All iPhones to feature Face ID and edge-to-edge display
    • A12 Processors
    • Faster LTE

    I feel a bit differently then others here, apparently. I actually like the 8+, and this year updated to that instead of the X.
    I don't care for either the Face ID or the notch look, and I liked saving the money on the difference. I also felt that the 8 would be the last model without those two features.

  3. So, basically, Apple is going forward with the "X" design.

    Perhaps they are just phasing out the "X" and making new phones based on the same design but at a lower cost if that is possible.

    Those OLED phones are costly.

  4. “I don’t know why CNBC is paying credence to Campling on this, because by all accounts the iPhone X is selling well or very well. Tim Cook told CNBC in February that “iPhone X was our most popular iPhone, despite not beginning to ship until November.” A report this week from Counterpoint claims the iPhone X alone accounted for 35 percent of all profits in the industry in Q4 2017 — even though it only went on sale in November.”

    http://daringfireball.net/linked/2018/04/20/campling-jackass

    This is the second go-round in recent months with this stupid “analyst” reporting on how the iPhone X is doomed (DOOOOOOOOMED!). I don’t understand how this garbage gets picked up and propagated.

    Three questions:

    • How does an analyst remain employed, or even in the contacts list of biz journalists, who says such obviously wrong things?
    • How do ostensibly knowledgeable journalists report on such nonsense?
    • Who is shorting Apple, and does this “analyst” propaganda manipulate the market enough to be profitable?
  5. Rest easy, Apple will certainly have a new bezel-less iPhone this Fall. And it seems a safe bet there will be a new “plus” variant with even larger screen.

    It may not look like the current X. The X as is may go away and not drop down into the “bargain” slot.

    But there will be a big expensive flagship iPhone for you to spend your money on.

  6. I agree with DaveF.

    Will the X -NAME- go away? MAYBE! But it will be because all phones have the bezel-less design and Face ID. Not the opposite.

    I fully expect to get my yearly upgrade from an X to a plus sized X, or whatever they call it.

  7. Now, of course, we are working off of assumptions, but these articles were all over the place the past few days popping up droves across my RSS feeds.

    It seems the idea here is that customers don't want to pay $1k+ for a flagship phone.

    So, if this is true, what is Apple going to downsize to make their flagship phone more affordable?

  8. Ronald Epstein

    Now, of course, we are working off of assumptions, but these articles were all over the place the past few days popping up droves across my RSS feeds.

    Pretty sure it was a whole bunch of sites just click-bait repeating that one article. Echo chamber. Not multiple, independent analysts coming to the same conclusion that Apple is abandoning flagship iPhones.

    Ronald Epstein

    It seems the idea here is that customers don't want to pay $1k+ for a flagship phone.

    Q1 results were good. Average Selling Price (ASP) of iPhones was up year over year (YoY). Third to last chart in following link.
    http://sixcolors.com/post/2018/02/apple-reports-its-holiday-2017-earnings-today/

    What will be telling will be Q2 results. If ASP drops and/or iPhone revenue drops YoY, that will be a sign that the upper range is saturated. If Samsung revenues (if they're even reported) go up when iPhone goes down, that could show Apple is weakening. If the whole market drops, that could show sector maturation and everyone is happy enough and upgrades are stretching or they no longer "need" a flagship phone to do what needs doing on their smartphones.

    And of course, this Fall's iPhone release. There is no doubt there will be a bezel-less iPhone. It might push down in to lower cost options. It also might move up in price if the iPhone X Plus speculation is accurate.

    TBD. I just know we don't learn anything from these garbage "analyst" "articles". I'm increasingly of the opinion they are playing journalists to try and manipulate the market for their clients. They don't give good information and only seem to confuse casual tech followers.

  9. I have watched Apple closely for many years now, and most of the time these analysts and leaks – especially this far ahead of a new phone – may have the right info, but jump to wildly incorrect conclusions.

    What I have read in sources I trust is that the 2018 iPhone lineup will look like the iPhone X, probably in 2 sizes, maybe even 3 (I personally find a 3rd X style phone unlikely). Apple changes suppliers based on who can make the tech they need, and if they improved the sensors (likely) maybe they moved to different suppliers. Maybe they keep the iPhone 8 around as mid-level, (new?) SE as entry level, and axe the current X model in favor of the new products. Or make a cheaper X as mid-level (precedent for this was the 5C, which was a cheaper way to make the 5 but with the same specs).

    Do they call it the XI? X2? X3: The Last Stand? (Nooooooooooooo!) ¯_(ツ)_/¯

    Almost everything this time of year is clickbait or an attempt by someone to move the stock one way or another.

  10. The analysts are almost always wrong. Some of them are wrong because they're biased or stupid. Others are just being trolls because they want press or because they're shorting the stock and want to see it drop.

    Having said that, it wouldn't surprise me to learn that the iPhone X is selling fewer units than the other phones. Almost by definition, the higher the price, the smaller the market. And the iPhone X does have certain disadvantages. You know, it wasn't planned for the iPhone X to only have face recognition – but they couldn't get Touch ID to work without the button.

    Personally, I would be loathe to buy a phone with only face recognition. I frequently need to activate the phone in the car. With my older iPhone, I can feel for the phone, hit the button and then use Siri to call someone or open Waze. With only face recognition, I would have to look down or bring the phone up – all too dangerous to do while driving (and probably illegal in many places).

    Analysts (and others) are always saying "Apple is doomed", but in fiscal 2017, Apple had net sales of over $229 billion and net income of over $48.3 billion and that wasn't even a record. They sold 216.7 million iPhones. It used to take years for a new product to sell just a million. In the first quarter of this fiscal, they sold another 77.3 million iPhones.

    Here are some brilliant analysts' "blasts from the past":

    John C. Dvorak, 1984
    “The Macintosh uses an experimental pointing device called a "mouse". There is no evidence that people want to use these things. I don’t want one of these new fangled devices."

    former Apple VP Gaston Bastiaens, January 1996.
    “Within the next two months, Sony will acquire Apple. … Sony will be the white knight who will step into the picture."

    Michael Dell, October 1997
    "I'd shut [Apple] down and give the money back to the shareholders."

    Hiawatha Bray, Boston Globe, 1998.
    "The iMac will only sell to some of the true believers. The iMac doesn’t include a floppy disk drive for doing file backups or sharing of data. … The iMac will fail.

    10/5/2000 Michael S. Malone
    Apple R.I.P.
    … “Nevertheless, the bloom is off the rose. The incredible run-up Apple stock has enjoyed since Steve's return is over, and the sheen of success that had enveloped the company has been tarnished.

    A temporary setback? Don't be too sure. Unlike, say, Hewlett-Packard, Apple has always been a company that deals poorly with failure. When things go bad at Apple, they go very bad. “

    5/21/2001 Cliff Edwards
    Commentary: Sorry, Steve: Here's Why Apple Stores Won't Work

    “New retail outlets aren't going to fix Apple's sales “

    12/23/2006 Bill Ray (Mobile)
    “Why the Apple phone will fail, and fail badly”
    It's the Pippin all over again”

    1/14/2007 Matthew Lynn
    Apple iPhone Will Fail in a Late, Defensive Move
    “…Don't let that fool you into thinking that it matters. The big competitors in the mobile-phone industry such as Nokia Oyj and Motorola Inc. won't be whispering nervously into their clamshells over a new threat to their business…

    The iPhone is nothing more than a luxury bauble that will appeal to a few gadget freaks. In terms of its impact on the industry, the iPhone is less relevant”

    3/28/2007 John Dvorak
    Apple should pull the plug in the iPhone
    Commentary: Company risks its reputation in competitive business
    … Now compare that effort and overlay the mobile handset business. This is not an emerging business. In fact it's gone so far that it's in the process of consolidation with probably two players dominating everything, Nokia Corp… and Motorola Inc.”

    See how smart they all were? And the problem is that almost none of them ever admit that they were wrong.

  11. Apple’s pattern is to announce new iPhones in September and have them for sale a couple weeks later. The iPhone X came out in November last year, being new and initially supply limited.

    Presumably Apple will follow the same routine in 2018 with new phones for sale late September. Perhaps the X successor will be again come out in November.

  12. I think the X name will be retired, my personal theory is it might have just been for the 10th anniversary of iPhone to mark a special occasion, with the release of a "how awesome a phone can we make right now" version.

    But technology marches on and what was top of the line last year is average this year. As Home Theater aficionados, we see this in our hobby every year without fail.

    So there is no "going backwards and putting the genie back in the bottle". My belief is that whatever top-of-the-line phone Apple releases next year, whatever its name is, will be superior to the X. A lot of us bought the X and there's no way they'll pass up an opportunity to take more of our money by releasing only inferior phones in the fall.

    Apple will need to continue focusing on sales because, and I'm trying to put this as non-political as I can, just stating facts: many countries are now reducing, or penalizing, or assessing back-taxes on Apple's former tax havens and practices. They will be forced to pay more corporate tax in the future and I believe are even paying Ireland some back tax they owed.

    All that is to say there's no way they'll allow X purchasers, who are likely their most ardent supporters, go a year without giving them revenue.

  13. Well the earnings call this afternoon just squashed any doubt the iPhone X isn’t selling. Apple just posted this quarter as their best ever for this period ending.

  14. I never doubted that the X wouldn't sell well. What I think I am curious to see, and why Wall Street might be second guessing, is: can a phone priced that high be sustainable over time? I was all-in for the X because of many things: the anniversary, the one-off "special" nature of it, the big jump in screen tech, etc. I've updated my phone every 1-2 years like clockwork.

    But if they keep pricing future top models at the same price, personally speaking I'm going to slow down my upgrade rate. So if enough people feel like I do, then the X can sell well on its release year, but may not prove to be a long term winning strategy.

    Or, if disposable income has risen enough that most people don't care and will buy it, then Apple has once again raised the bar…and the price. :laugh:

  15. Clinton McClure

    I believe the next iPhone will be called Eleven.

    That would be ok if the phone is introduced by Bobbie Millie Brown and/or a van flipping onto stage with Tim Cook holding the device. 🙂

  16. DaveF

    I'm rooting for X2 (pronounced "Ex Two", as opposed to the current "X)…

    I'm skeptical we'll see an iPhone 9 and an iPhone XI (pronounced "Eleven")

    I think they should drop the whole number thing and just call the next iPhone Nigel.

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